TEHRAN – As war repercussions persist and multiple fronts remain open, the Israeli regime has effectively entered election mode.

Despite the ongoing war repercussions and several fronts remaining open or pending, internal dynamics indicate that parties across the political spectrum have firmly entered an election atmosphere. 

War, which dominated public discourse for months, is no longer the sole defining factor of the domestic political mood, though it remains highly influential. The debate is gradually turning toward the upcoming elections, Netanyahu’s fate, and the shape of his party that the ballot box might produce.

At the heart of this scene, the position of prime minister and Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu dominates political and media discussion. He remains the figure who defines the regime’s sharp political divide with a simple formula, at first glance: for or against Netanyahu.

However, this formula has more complex layers. On one hand, even some political rivals acknowledge Netanyahu’s military successes since October 7, 2023, but these have not translated into electoral gains. It only highlights a bloodthirsty Zionist ideology, in particular the Gaza genocide. 

On the other hand, his criminal trial remains open, the ruling party is experiencing internal tensions, and the opposition is trying to reorganize its ranks.

Media reports indicate that months before the Knesset election scheduled for October, the Israeli regime is entering an early electoral battle where war calculations overlap with leadership crises and party conflicts.

Although Netanyahu has no serious rival inside Likud, the party does not appear stable. His desire to guarantee many seats on the next candidate list has caused concern, especially amid talk of securing up to 10 personal picks, at a time when polls give Likud only about 25 to 27 seats.

This practically means reducing several current ministers and Knesset members’ chances of securing safe positions. This move is seen as part of a broader attempt to reshape Likud into being more loyal to Netanyahu. According to reports, he seeks a disciplined slate of figures who owe him greater personal loyalty and lack independent power bases within the party.

Additionally, internal disputes reflect fears that primaries might reveal discontent or trigger internal conflict at a sensitive time. This indicates a crisis of trust between Netanyahu and his party officials, who fear the candidate list could become a personal tool rather than a traditional party line-up.

To make matters worse, there is talk of a new right-wing party being formed, described behind the scenes as “Likud B” a party in the spirit of the “old Likud”.

According to analysts, the significance of this scenario is that it does not target the left or center but goes directly after Likud’s voter base. Names mentioned include Gilad Erdan, Moshe Kahlon, and Yuli Edelstein, all former Likud officials, though no final framework has been announced yet.

This option could attract right-wing voters dissatisfied with Netanyahu personally, especially those seeking a right-wing alternative that belongs neither to the fragmented opposition nor to the far right represented by Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir. 

When it comes to war and its outcomes, Netanyahu is disappointed that the illegal U.S.-Israeli war in Iran has not translated into a tangible rise in Likud’s strength. Gaza, according to commentators, remains an open arena where Hamas is recovering and rebuilding its capabilities, showing no intention of giving up its weapons. Lebanon is a troubled quagmire, exacting a heavy price, where Hezbollah remains a formidable resistance force. Netanyahu cannot present his supporters with a picture of decisive victory or a final settlement on any front.

Netanyahu’s trial is one of the most divisive issues, especially as it remains open to multiple judicial and political possibilities. The situation becomes more complicated given the external dimension this case has taken, with direct intervention from President Donald Trump pushing for a presidential pardon for Netanyahu, followed by President Isaac Herzog refusing to grant one without consensus.

Netanyahu’s trial is heavily linked to the results of the upcoming elections. If he loses the vote, harsh personal scenarios could open up before him, as he would be tried without political immunity or popular support. So the upcoming election is both a political and personal battle for him: either he succeeds in convincing the Trump administration into continuing wars on several fronts and claims electoral capital, or he faces what could be the most threatening phase for his future since returning to office.

As a result, Israelis are divided over Netanyahu’s trial and his court appearances. Some reject dragging a prime minister, whom his supporters claim is “reshaping the map of the Middle East” into the courtroom so often. 

Others believe Netanyahu has become unqualified and unfit to lead or make fateful decisions, given his exhaustion, illness, and repeated interrogation. This feeds a broader debate questioning whether Netanyahu should remain in power after his long years in office.